How to calculate mattress needs and swap rates over 14 nights: a data-driven approach

Introduction

When planning sleeping solutions for shelters, events, or emergency operations, it’s important to estimate not just the number of mattresses needed at the start, but also how many will need to be replaced during the deployment. Real-world data shows that Soku Minute Mattresses are durable, but a small percentage are swapped out as the days go by. Here’s how to use a practical, non-linear swap rate model for accurate planning over a 14-night period.

How Swap Rates Progress Over 14 Nights

Based on festival and field data, mattress replacements do not occur at a constant rate. Instead, the likelihood of a mattress being swapped increases as the deployment continues. The recommended model is as follows:

• First 1.7% swapped in the first 5 nights
• Second 1.7% swapped in the next 4 nights (nights 6–9)
• Third 1.7% swapped in the following 3 nights (nights 10–12)
• Fourth 1.7% swapped in the next 2 nights (nights 13–14)
• Fifth 1.7% swapped in the final night (or just before the end)

This results in a total cumulative swap rate of 8.5% over 14 nights.

Swap Rate Table

Period	Nights Covered	Swap Rate (%)	Cumulative Swap Rate (%)
Batch 1	1–5	1.7	1.7
Batch 2	6–9	1.7	3.4
Batch 3	10–12	1.7	5.1
Batch 4	13–14	1.7	6.8
Batch 5	End (night 15 or just before)	1.7	8.5

How to Use This Model for Planning

• Determine your maximum occupancy: The number of people needing a mattress at the same time.
• Calculate your base need: For 1,000 guests, you need 1,000 mattresses for the duration (up to 14 nights per mattress).
• Add replacements: Multiply your base need by 8.5% to account for swaps over 14 nights. For 1,000 mattresses, plan for 85 replacements.

Practical Example

If you are hosting 1,000 people for 14 nights:

• Base mattresses: 1,000
• Replacements (8.5%): 85
• Total to order: 1,085 mattresses

Tips for Efficient Operations

• Monitor actual swap rates during your operation to refine future planning.
• Communicate to staff and users about the expected mattress lifespan and replacement policy.
• Keep a buffer stock on-site for quick swaps as needed.
• Track and record replacements for future optimization and sustainability reporting.

Share Your Experience

We highly value practical feedback from our users. By sharing your own swap rates and operational experiences, you help us and other organizations plan more accurately and maintain the highest quality standards. Please let us know your results so we can continue to improve together.

Need help with custom calculations or want a planning tool based on your scenario?
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