How to calculate mattress needs and swap rates over 14 nights: a data-driven approach
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Introduction
When planning mattress quantities for shelters, events, or emergency operations, it is important to estimate not only the number of mattresses needed at the start, but also how many will need to be replaced during the deployment. Real-world data shows that Soku Minute Mattresses are durable, but a small percentage are swapped as the days pass. Here is a practical, non-linear swap-rate model for accurate planning over a 14-night period.
How swap rates progress over 14 nights
Based on festival and field data, mattress replacements do not happen at a constant rate. Instead, the chance of a mattress being swapped increases as the deployment continues. The recommended model is as follows:
- First 1.7% swapped in the first 5 nights
- Second 1.7% swapped in the next 4 nights (nights 6–9)
- Third 1.7% swapped in the following 3 nights (nights 10–12)
- Fourth 1.7% swapped in the next 2 nights (nights 13–14)
- Fifth 1.7% swapped on the final night (or just before the end)
This gives a total cumulative swap rate of 8.5% over 14 nights.
Swap rate table
| Period | Nights covered | Swap rate (%) | Cumulative swap rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batch 1 | 1–5 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Batch 2 | 6–9 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| Batch 3 | 10–12 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| Batch 4 | 13–14 | 1.7 | 6.8 |
| Batch 5 | End (night 15 or just before) | 1.7 | 8.5 |
How to use this model for planning
- Determine your maximum occupancy: the number of people who need a mattress at the same time.
- Calculate your base need: for 1,000 guests, you need 1,000 mattresses for the duration (up to 14 nights per mattress).
- Add replacements: multiply your base need by 8.5% to cover swaps over 14 nights. For 1,000 mattresses, plan for 85 replacements.
Practical example
If you are hosting 1,000 people for 14 nights:
- Base mattresses: 1,000
- Replacements (8.5%): 85
- Total to order: 1,085 mattresses
Tips for efficient operations
- Monitor actual swap rates during your operation to refine future planning.
- Tell staff and users about the expected mattress lifespan and replacement policy.
- Keep a buffer stock on site for quick swaps.
- Track and record replacements for future optimization and sustainability reporting.
Share your experience
We value practical feedback from our users. By sharing your own swap rates and operational experience, you help us and other organizations plan more accurately. Please let us know your results so we can keep improving together.
Need help with custom calculations, or want a planning tool for your scenario?
Contact us for advice and real-world benchmarks for your event, shelter, or emergency deployment.